Tuesday, June 11, 2013

PPP: Rand Paul Leading in Michigan!

Rand Paul seems to be leading in Iowa, New Hampshire and now Michigan as well.  In the latest Public Policy Polling (PPP) results from the Peninsula State or whatever Michigan is supposed to be called, Rand Paul leads with 18% with Jeb Bush at 16%, Chris Christie and 15% and Rubio at a paltry 11%.  Some things that I think following this poll are:

- We need to hope that both Jeb Bush and Chris Christie stay in the race to duke it out amongst themselves.  My guess is that if Jeb Bush doesn't run that a substantial portion of his voters would go to Christie and very few would go in Rand Paul's direction.  That is not to say that all of them will go to Christie, the NJ Governor is ahead amongs Moderates while Jeb Bush leads amongst those claiming they are "somewhat conservative" so some might go to the Rubio's and Ryan's if they run.  But needless to say, the more candidates like Bush and Christie running is good news for those of use who want a conservative as the GOP standard-bearer.  That is in fact how Reagan was able to win the nomination in 1980.  He was effectively the lone conservative battling a bunch of RINO's like George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, John Connally, John Anderson and Howard Baker.

- Rubio may have done serious damage to his brand with his comprehensive immigration reform plan.  NEVER under any circumstances pal around with Chuck Schumer and ally with him against conservatives.  If immigration reform fails and Rubio gets his act together between now and 2015, he has a chance.  Most people will forgive and forget.  If it passes and its a disaster though, he is finished.

- As I wrote previously, Rand Paul needs to do serious outreach to the elderly somehow.  Rand Paul has a 13 point lead among those 18-45, but is in a disastrous 5th place among those >65.  This won't be easy given his plan to reform both Medicare and Social Security but he needs to find a way to have a chance.  It's the elderly that turn out to vote after all.

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